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Article published In:
Diachronica
Vol. 41:1 (2024) ► pp.1–45

Divergence-time estimation in Indo-European

The case of Latin

ORCID logo | University of California, Los Angeles

Divergence-time estimation is one of the most important endeavors in historical linguistics. Its importance is matched only by its difficulty. As Bayesian methods of divergence-time estimation have become more common over the past two decades, a number of critical issues have come to the fore, including model sensitivity, the dependence of root-age estimates on uncertain interior-node ages, and the relationship between ancient languages and their modern counterparts. This study addresses these issues in an investigation of a particularly fraught case within Indo-European: the diversification of Latin into the Romance languages. The results of this study support a gradualist account of their formation that most likely began after 300  CE. They also bolster the view that Classical Latin is a sampled ancestor of the Romance languages (i.e., it lies along the branch leading to the Romance languages).

Keywords: Indo-European, Latin, Vulgar Latin, Romance, Bayesian phylogenetics, divergence-time estimation, linguistic ancestry
Article outline
  • 1.Introduction
    • 1.1Three issues
    • 1.2The diversification of Latin
    • 1.3Main claims
    • 1.4Outline
  • 2.Previous research
    • 2.1Tree topology
      • 2.1.1Results from Bayesian phylogenetic studies
    • 2.2Divergence times
      • 2.2.1Results from Bayesian phylogenetic studies
    • 2.3The ancestry question
      • 2.3.1What is direct ancestry?
      • 2.3.2The sibling hypothesis
      • 2.3.3The most-recent common ancestor hypothesis
      • 2.3.4The sampled-ancestor hypothesis
  • 3.Methods
    • 3.1Clock models
    • 3.2Character models
    • 3.3Tree models
      • 3.3.1Fossilized birth-death models
      • 3.3.2Episodic models
    • 3.4Model comparison
    • 3.5Posterior predictive simulation
    • 3.6Software
  • 4.Data
    • 4.1The age of Classical Latin
  • 5.Results
    • 5.1Model sensitivity
    • 5.2Model comparison
    • 5.3Divergence times
    • 5.4Tree topology
    • 5.5Model adequacy
  • 6.Discussion
    • 6.1Tree topology
    • 6.2Divergence times
    • 6.3The diversification of Latin and Roman history
    • 6.4The ancestry question redux
      • 6.4.1The distribution of basic vocabulary in Latin
      • 6.4.2Shared archaisms in Romance
  • 7.Conclusion
  • Acknowledgements
  • Notes
  • Abbreviations
  • References
Published online: 16 April 2024
DOI logo
https://doi.org/10.1075/dia.22031.gol
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